The Theory of Probability

My theory of probability states that if something is possible, it can happen.

This means that any possible imagined situation is able to happen.  This isn't to suppose that anything can happen, only the possible can happen.  Man cannot flap his arms and fly, like a bird, as man lacks the bodily flight mechanism structures of birds.  A person can not twirl around rapidly, and tunnel into the ground, as may be shown on cartoons.  The laws of physics prevent certain things from happening, thus this does not  oppose or counter the laws of physics.  This is to say, if it is possible, by physical law, it can happen.  It may never happen, but it still could have.

This theory borrows in part from logical fallacies, including: hasty generalization (basing a broad conclusion on a small sample.), ad populum (concludes that a proposition is true because many or most people believe it), and argumentum ad ignorantiam (that a proposition is true simply on the basis that it has not been proved false or that it is false). 

This theory also borrows in part from several laws, including the law of inevitability, the law of truly large numbers, the law of selection, the law of the probability lever, and the law of near enough.

Though this theory may appear simplistic and obvious at the onset, it address errors in several commonly held systems of belief.  Humans like to believe they are far evolved beyond other animals, yet human ignorance seems to be a widespread epidemic.  Most humans seem to be ignorant to anything beyond their own experiences, environments, senses, and so forth.  That ignorance causes them to doubt that which they cannot comprehend.

This theory is aimed at situations such as jury's.  I often hear jurors tell of how they came to their decision based on how they would have acted/reacted differently, in the same situation the defendant was in, thus they found the accused party's defense to be false.  As example, as juror may state something like "I found the defendant guilty because I didn't believe his story that he was in shock over his friends death, thus his reason for not calling the police sooner.", or somesuch.  There are over 7.5 billion people on this planet, we cannot determine the actions and intents of each and every person.  If it's possible for a person to act a certain way, it can happen.  Simple because all 9 people on a jury would act different in a certain situation, doesn't mean every single person would act that same way.

This theory applies to situations where people refuse to believe other possible situation, or scenarios, simply because they have not had the same experience, and/or can't imagine that scenario occurring.    I  once had someone tell me that there was no such thing as debilitating pain.  She claimed that because she felt she could endure the most extreme of pains, and stay active, that any one could also do the same.  There are at least two main flaws with her thinking.
1.  She is assuming she is experiencing the most extreme form of pain possible.  She may at this moment  be experiencing the worst degree of pain she has ever personally felt, but someone else may be suffering from pain several times beyond what she is feeling.  Her experiences cannot account, or predict, the experiences of 7.5 billion other individuals. Pain cannot be measured like voltage.  
2.  She is assuming that everyone would react the exact same way to the same pain she is experiencing.  
This person immediate dismisses any possible alternatives to her own experience, due to ignorance.

This theory also applies to people like the fundamentalist religious, scientists, and others willing to classify strong belief as absolute knowledge* (see separate article on absolute knowledge vs. truth).  One may hold the highest degree of belief in something, like an infinitely expanding universe, but they cannot provide absolute proof  it occurs.  Scientists used to believe the universe centered on the Earth, but have since discovered otherwise.  Scientists once held that the Earth was hollow, but believe differently now.  There are numerous examples.  Strong belief, even the strongest and highest-held beliefs, are still beliefs.  Avid religious followers will often declare they know their faith is the one true faith.